Despite the declining number of young people in the UK, higher education enrolments remain steady as universities welcome more international students
Previously on Prospects Luminate, we authored an article concerning the declining number of young people within the UK. In particular, we focused on the impact that this phenomenon could have on student numbers, with some anticipating a fall in the number of individuals seeking entry into the UK's higher education institutions (HEIs) - which would inevitably contribute to a decline in graduate numbers as those cohorts move through the system.
And while there was evidence to suggest that this could be true, with applicant numbers having been on a downward trajectory at the time, data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) showed that university enrolment numbers continued to increase year-on-year despite the declining number of young people in the UK.
In fact, we found that it created an opportunity for institutions to open up more spaces for groups other than young, British applicants. With HEIs offering more places to mature and international students in 2018/19 than in previous years.1
In this article, we will take another look at these numbers as we seek to understand exactly how HEIs coped with the declining numbers of young people within the UK from then to now, as from 2018/19 to 2020/21, each cohort within the 20 and under age group was declining simultaneously. Additionally, 2021/22 marked the first year in which all four cohorts within the 21-24 age group were simultaneously on the decline.
Impact on 20 and under enrolments
2018/19 was the first year in which we were able to see the effect of the declining number of young people on university enrolments. Although we saw an increase of 5,200+ enrolments among this age group (representing a 0.5% increase), it was a relatively small one in comparison to the previous three years. In 2015/16 there was a 2.7% increase in 20 and under enrolments, representing an increase of 25,100+ on the previous year. The following year saw a 2.3% increase (21,400+), and the next a 1.7% increase (16,900+).
2019/20
In our previous article, we speculated that HEIs would offer more places to international students, aged 20 and under, to avoid similarly modest increases over the next three years. Interestingly, HESA data shows that there was a marked increase (12.2%) of international student enrolments from 2018/19 to 2019/20 – an increase of 60,800+ compared to the previous year. HEI’s also used the opportunity to increase the percentage of mature students, accepting 5.5% more applications from the 25-29 age group compared to the previous year.
Evidence suggests that HEIs saw this as an opportunity to intensify widening participation efforts, with HESA data showing a sizeable increase in enrolments from students domiciled in low participation neighbourhoods.
2020/21
However, the following year illustrates a completely different picture. As the pandemic hit, and employers indicated that they would be recruiting fewer graduates in response to the impact of the pandemic, many young people who may have entered the labour market after leaving college/sixth form saw higher education as the safer option during the pandemic. Consequently, although students were reluctant to travel to the UK for university during the pandemic, UCAS data suggests that HEIs were able to make up for this by accepting a larger proportion of 18 year old applicants than in previous years, To illustrate, 257,895 18 year olds had their applications accepted in 2020, compared to 241,515 in 2019 and 238,380 the previous year.2 We also saw huge increases in the 25-29 and 30+ categories, something we will return to later in the article.
Moreover, the evidence suggests that HEIs saw this as an opportunity to intensify widening participation efforts, with HESA data showing a sizeable increase in enrolments from students domiciled in low participation neighbourhoods. There was a 9.1% increase in enrolments from this group from 2019/20 to 2020/21, compared to a 3.6% increase in the previous year.
It’s also important to note that, despite the reluctance of students to travel during the pandemic, HEIs were still able to recruit a large number of international students in 2020. Although more modest than the increase seen from 2018/19 to 2019/20, the number of international students still increased by 8.6% in comparison to the previous year.
2021/22
While there was an increase in enrolments among this age group from 2020/21 to 2021/22, it was a smaller increase than those seen in the previous two years. This comes as no surprise though, as two off the three cohorts (19 and 20 year olds) within the 20 and under age group were still on the decline in 2021. In fact, we would’ve expected to see similarly modest increases in the previous two years if it weren’t for the impact of the pandemic, or the measures that HEIs took to bolster numbers in this age group.
How were 21-24 year old impacted?
As we explained in our previous article, this age group was relatively stable in comparison to other groups in the year’s leading up to 2018/19, with large numerical increases being quite common. For instance, there was a 22,400+ (3.6%) increase from 2015/16 to 2016/17, followed by a 17,700+ (2.8%) increase the following year and a 23,100+ (3.5%) increase from 2017/18 to 2018/19.
2019/20 - 2020/21
In 2019/20, there was a slightly larger than usual increase (4.8%) in enrolments among this age group, representing a 33,600+ increase on the previous year’s numbers. This was then followed by an even larger increase (6.9%) the following year – likely a result of the pandemic. As mentioned previously, many young people turned to education during the pandemic as employers slowed down recruitment.
This is especially so in the case of postgraduate study, as previous research has found that graduates are more likely to enter postgraduate study immediately after graduation in times of crisis. As an example, in a survey conducted immediately after the first nationwide lockdowns were instated, Prospects found that 36% of finalists surveyed indicated that they were planning to remain in higher education rather than start their careers as a result of the pandemic.3 A phenomenon that appears to be borne out in the data, with HESA figures indicating that there was a huge spike in postgraduate enrolments in 2019/20 – a 15.7% increase on the previous year.
HEIs will continue to use creative ways to increase student numbers year-on-year regardless of declining population figures, subsequently, this will also ensure that graduate numbers remain high.
2021/22
Interestingly, in 2021/22 there was a much smaller increase among this age group in comparison to previous years, with just 11,500+ (1.5%) more people enrolling in 2020/21 than in 2019/20. Representing the smallest increase among this age group since 2015/16 when there was an increase of 10,100+ compared to the previous year.
This stands out because 2021/22 marked the first year in which all four cohorts within this age group were declining simultaneously, a trend that will continue until 2023/24. However, it is likely that HEIs will take measures to ensure that this does not impact overall enrolment numbers. This could explain why there was such a substantial increase of international student enrolments in this year. From 2020/21 to 2021/22, there was a 74,800+ increase in international student enrolments.
How were the 25 to 29 and 30+ age groups impacted?
Prior to 2018/19, where we saw an increase of 8,000+ 30+ enrolments, the number of enrolees in this age group had been on a steady decline since 2013/14. However, numbers continued to increase from 2018/19 to 2019/20, with 8,900+ more enrolments than the previous year. Then, during the pandemic, we witnessed a massive 17% increase in enrolments among this age group, representing an 86,400+ increase on the previous year’s numbers. It’s likely that this was a result of efforts to bolster enrolment figures, as students were hesitant to embark on travel for their studies – making it difficult to boost international student numbers. The following year, we saw a more modest 9% increase (53,400+) among this group, nevertheless, this still represents a relatively large one.
Notably, the data paints a similar picture for the 25-29 age group. Following the largest increase (4000+) in enrolments among this age group in years, in 2018/19; we saw an even larger increase in the following year. From 2018/19 to 2019/20, we can see that there was a 5.5% (15,000+) increase in enrolments, which was then followed by another marked increase (17%) during the first year of pandemic – a 49,100+ increase on the previous year. Furthermore, similar to the 30+ age group, we then saw a more modest, yet still large, 9% increase (33,700+) from 2020/21 to 2021/22.
Although the increase in both groups was comparatively modest from 2020/21 to 2021/22, it is likely that numbers still remained relatively high due to the smaller than usual increases in both the 20 and under and 21-24 age groups during the same period. And while 2021 marks the first year in which each cohort within the 21-24 age group will be declining simultaneously, in 2021, two of the three cohorts within the 20 and under group were still in decline as well.
In fact, given that the majority of Non-UK applicants (548,420) fell within the 20 and under and 21-24 age ranges in 2021, 65,390 of which were accepted4, it is very likely that these age groups would’ve actually seen a decline if it weren’t for the huge increase (12.1%) of international student enrolments from 2020/21 to 2021/22 – if all other figures remained the same. However, it is more likely that institutions would’ve made up for this, either by accepting more young, Non-UK applicants, or accepting more young applicants from low participation neighbourhoods.
What does this suggest about the impact of population numbers on student numbers?
In all, the evidence suggests that HEIs will continue to use creative ways to increase student numbers year-on-year regardless of declining population figures, subsequently, this will also ensure that graduate numbers remain high.
If numbers decline, institutions can use this as an opportunity to open up more spaces to international students. Moreover, even when they struggle to do so due to an event as far-reaching as the Covid-19 pandemic, institutions can always take advantage of the situation by using it as an opportunity to intensify efforts to widen participation or admit more mature students.
Notes:
- UK population trends and graduate numbers, Luminate, 2020.
- UCAS UNDERGRADUATE END OF CYCLE DATA RESOURCES 2022, UCAS, 2022.
- Will postgraduate enrolments surge post COVID-19?, Luminate, 2020.
- UCAS UNDERGRADUATE END OF CYCLE DATA RESOURCES 2022, UCAS, 2022.
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