Changes in the make-up of the UK population could have significant effects on the number of young people attending university and going on to graduate - but how serious an issue is this for higher education institutions?
For a while now, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data has shown that the UK's population is an ageing one. The latest projections suggest there will be an additional 8.6 million people aged 65 or older in 50 years' time. This phenomenon is down to two things: a decline in both mortality (in last 50 years) and fertility rates.1
The latter is also the main causal factor of a related phenomenon: the declining numbers of young people within the UK.2
In the early 1990s, a trend was set that saw British women having fewer babies than in the 1980s, and this continued into the new millennium when rates began to pick up again. This resulted in the number of 18 to 24-year-olds declining by 297,162 between 2016 and the present. A further drop of 140,431 is expected before the trend bottoms out in 2023.3
What does this mean for university enrolments?
Because of this, many began to predict a fall in the number of individuals seeking entry into the UK's higher education institutions (HEIs) - which would inevitably contribute to a decline in graduate numbers as those cohorts move through the system. However, Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data shows that university enrolment numbers have continued to increase year-on-year.4
This is surprising given that overall applicant numbers have been on a downward trajectory since 2016, with a 2% decrease in applicants occurring from 2017-18 – also coinciding with a 4% drop in UK domiciled applicants.5
Nevertheless, HESA figures confirm that enrolment numbers have been increasing since 2014/15, a trend that continued into 2018/19 with the latest statistical release revealing that British HEIs saw 2,383,970 students enrolling in 2018/19 (a 2% increase on the previous year).6
Although this appears to suggest that enrolment figures are unaffected by the overall drop in the number of young people in the UK, closer inspection reveals this to be the first year in which such an effect is apparent.
How does this affect 20 and under enrolment?
Compared to the previous year, in 2018/19 there was a 1.3% decrease in the number of university applicants aged 20 and under from all domiciles, and a 3% drop in the same age group of UK-domiciled applicants. Meanwhile, in the same year there was an increase of 5,210 (0.5%) enrolments among those aged 20 and under.7 And though this represents an increase in the overall number of 20 and under enrolments in comparison to the previous year, it is a relatively small one.
To illustrate, in 2015/16 there was a 2.7% increase in 20 and under enrolments, representing an increase of 25,155 on the previous year. The following year saw a 2.3% increase (21,460), and the next a 1.7% increase (16,980). Interestingly, this coincides with the declining number of young people within the UK, as 2018 represents the first year where each cohort within the 20 and under group (those aged 18, 19 and 20) were declining simultaneously - a phenomenon that will continue into the year 2020/21.8
Therefore, unless measures are taken to bolster enrolment numbers among this age group (such as lowering entry requirements for disadvantaged groups, or accepting larger numbers of international students aged 20 and under), it is likely that the next two statistical releases will convey similarly modest increases - if not decreases - in the number of 20 and under enrolees.
Moreover, because non-UK enrolee data cannot be disaggregated by age, the true effect of declining population figures on 2018/19 enrolment figures cannot be determined. However, assuming that a large proportion of internationally mobile students entering British HEIs in 2018 were aged 20 and under - given that upward of 106,000 applicants among this age group were domiciled outside of the UK (26,975 of which were accepted) - it is safe to infer that there would have been a decline in enrolments among this group in 2018/19 if it were not for the rise in non-UK enrolments.9,10
Institutions can take advantage of the declining number of young people in the UK by using it as an opportunity to intensify efforts to widen participation.
What about the 25 to 29 and 30+ age groups?
For the time being there hasn't been a decline in enrolment numbers for any other age group. In fact, the latest data release revealed increases among age groups that have either been fairly steady or declining in recent years. As an example, 30+ enrolments increased for the first time in a while following the 2013/14 decline, seeing an 8,000+ increase in enrolments in 2018/19. The figures for this group were declining year-on-year until this point.11
Additionally, for those aged 25-29, enrolment figures increased by the largest margin in years - seeing an increase of 4,000+ enrolments in 2018/19. Following the 2013/14 decline in enrolments, the largest increase among this group before 2018/19 was an increase of 948 enrolments in 2017/18 (compared to the previous year).12
Is there any impact on 21 to 24-year-olds?
The one group remaining relatively stable in comparison to previous years are those aged 21 to 24. In 2018/19, this group saw an increase of 23,180 enrolments in comparison to the previous year. Though this is an enormous increase, it is not abnormal for this group. For instance, 2016/17 witnessed a similar increase (22,440) in the number of enrolments compared with 2015/16.13
Nonetheless, given projected population trends, it is likely that this group will begin to see decreases in enrolment numbers similar to that of the 20 and under group in years to come. Beginning in 2021/22, all four cohorts within the 21 to 24 age group will simultaneously be on the decline for three consecutive years.14 Therefore, if any direct correlation exists between population numbers and enrolment figures - as it has been assumed - then the number of enrolments for this group will start to increase at a much slower rate than in previous years.
How will graduate numbers be affected?
A subsequent decline in graduate numbers is not an inevitable outcome. As the above evidence suggests, there are ways for enrolment numbers to not only remain steady, but also to increase year-on-year regardless of population decline in any particular age group. For instance, a decline in young applicants can be viewed as an opportunity for UK universities to offer more places to mature students.
Alternatively, such a trend can serve to open up extra spaces for institutions to offer to non-UK domiciled applicants. The 2018/19 decline in 20 and under enrolments appeared to prompt HEIs to do just this - resulting in an unusually large increase in non-UK enrolments in comparison to 2017/18. In 2018/19, two thirds (27,155) of the increase in overall enrolment numbers were a result of non-UK acceptances.15 To put this in perspective, this represents a 6% rise in the number of non-UK enrolments. The previous two years saw much smaller increases of 3.6% and 1.3% respectively.
Therefore, as long as the current Covid-19 outbreak does not greatly impact the ability of British HEIs to recruit international students, it is likely that graduate numbers will continue to either rise or remain steady as institutions open up a larger number of spaces for groups other than young British applicants. Furthermore, institutions can take advantage of the declining number of young people in the UK by using it as an opportunity to intensify efforts to widen participation for non-traditional students.
Notes
- Living longer: how our population is changing and why it matters, ONS, 2018.
- Being 18 in 2018: Work, family, marriage – how has life changed for the children of 2000 reaching adulthood?, ONS, 2018.
- 2014-based National Population Projections, ONS, 2014.
- Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2018/19 - Student numbers and characteristics, HESA, 2020.
- June Deadline Analysis: Sex and age, UCAS, 2019.
- Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2018/19 - Student numbers and characteristics, HESA, 2020.
- Ibid.
- 2014-based National Population Projections, ONS, 2014.
- June Deadline Analysis: Sex and age, UCAS, 2019.
- Applicants and acceptances by groups of applicants 2018, UCAS, 2018.
- Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2018/19 - Student numbers and characteristics, HESA, 2020.
- Ibid.
- Ibid.
- 2014-based National Population Projections, ONS, 2014.
- Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2018/19 - Student numbers and characteristics, HESA, 2020.
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