Charlie Ball takes an in-depth look at the graduate labour market in Wales, including a region-by-region analysis at graduate outcomes and patterns of migration
Contents
- The graduate labour market in Wales
- Graduate Outcomes from Welsh institutions
- The Welsh regions: North Wales, Mid and South West Wales, South East Wales.
This report examines the graduate labour market in Wales. We use data from the Graduate Outcomes survey from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) to draw a picture of skilled employment throughout Wales and to look at some of the occupational and industrial data. We also examine the way students and graduates move within Wales, and to locations in England to gain a more nuanced understanding of supply and demand.
Wales has a different physical and economic geography to the rest of the UK, and this means that comparisons with other UK nations can often be misleading. Cardiff, in the south east of the country, is the dominant graduate labour market, with Swansea also important, and much of north and central Wales is rural, sparsely populated, remote and in parts mountainous.
The Welsh economy in general compares with other regional UK economies outside London. There is more employment in primary industry - particularly agriculture and forestry - and in manufacturing, as well as in the public sector than some other regions, and a little less employment in business and finance, especially outside Cardiff and Swansea.
The graduate labour market in Wales
- Proportion of Welsh population with RQF4+ (HE or higher) at the end of 2022: 41.4%.
- Proportion of economically active in Wales with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 47%.
- Number of economically active in Wales with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 653,000.
- Proportion of Welsh workforce in professional level employment at the end of 2022: 45.4%.
- Number of Welsh workers in professional level employment at the end of 2022: 660,300.
- Proportion of graduates from 2020/21 reporting some form of self-employment at the end of 2022: 7.6%.
Wales has a lower proportion of people than the UK average educated to NVQ4+ (degree or equivalent) - although a large minority of the workforce has this level of qualification - and a slightly lower proportion of professional-level jobs as the UK as a whole. This means that there are slightly fewer people educated to RQF4+ level than there are roles at professional level - this has persisted into 2023 and, if anything, the gap is starting to widen.
Standard Occupational Group (SOC 2020) | Number of employees in 2022 | Percentage of workforce in 2022 | Year-on-year change from 2021 |
---|---|---|---|
111 : Chief Executives and Senior Officials | 4300 | 0.3 | 0 |
112 : Production Managers and Directors | 18900 | 1.3 | -2500 |
113 : Functional Managers and Directors | 38200 | 2.6 | 5600 |
115 : Managers and Directors in Retail and Wholesale | 12200 | 0.8 | -100 |
116 : Senior Officers in Protective Services | 2900 | 0.2 | 700 |
117 : Health and Social Services Managers and Directors | 5300 | 0.4 | -1800 |
121 : Managers and Proprietors in Agriculture Related Services | 3600 | 0.2 | 500 |
122 : Managers and Proprietors in Hospitality and Leisure Services | 13400 | 0.9 | -6200 |
123 : Managers and Proprietors in Health and Care Services | 4800 | 0.3 | -500 |
124 : Managers in Logistics, Warehousing and Transport | 7700 | 0.5 | -3700 |
125 : Managers and Proprietors in Other Services | 21200 | 1.5 | 0 |
211 : Natural and Social Science Professionals | 7400 | 0.5 | -500 |
212 : Engineering Professionals | 19600 | 1.3 | 200 |
213 : Information Technology Professionals | 34000 | 2.3 | 6700 |
214 : Web and Multimedia Design Professionals | 5300 | 0.4 | 1400 |
215 : Conservation and Environment Professionals | 6000 | 0.4 | 3400 |
216 : Research and Development (R&D) and Other Research Professionals | 5100 | 0.4 | 300 |
221 : Medical Practitioners | 15000 | 1 | 2200 |
222 : Therapy Professionals | 14700 | 1 | 700 |
223 : Nursing Professionals | 38400 | 2.6 | 900 |
224 : Veterinarians | 2100 | 0.1 | 1300 |
225 : Other Health Professionals | 14100 | 1 | -800 |
231 : Teaching Professionals | 61100 | 4.2 | -3600 |
232 : Other Educational Professionals | 11700 | 0.8 | -100 |
241 : Legal Professionals | 10600 | 0.7 | 2600 |
242 : Finance Professionals | 15600 | 1.1 | -1000 |
243 : Business, Research and Administrative Professionals | 15600 | 1.1 | 800 |
244 : Business and Financial Project Management Professionals | 9800 | 0.7 | 500 |
245 : Architects, Chartered Architectural Technologists, Planning Officers, Surveyors and Construction Professionals | 12900 | 0.9 | -1600 |
246 : Welfare Professionals | 13300 | 0.9 | -1400 |
247 : Librarians and Related Professionals | 1400 | 0.1 | 100 |
248 : Quality and Regulatory Professionals | 7600 | 0.5 | -700 |
249 : Media Professionals | 6700 | 0.5 | -1100 |
311 : Science, Engineering and Production Technicians | 14400 | 1 | -600 |
312 : CAD, Drawing and Architectural Technicians | 1100 | 0.1 | -1000 |
313 : Information Technology Technicians | 13100 | 0.9 | 1800 |
321 : Health Associate Professionals | 5900 | 0.4 | -300 |
322 : Welfare and Housing Associate Professionals | 18600 | 1.3 | -6000 |
323 : Teaching and Childcare Associate Professionals | 2900 | 0.2 | 800 |
324 : Veterinary nurses | 700 | 0.1 | -200 |
331 : Protective Service Occupations | 26500 | 1.8 | 7200 |
341 : Artistic, Literary and Media Occupations | 15100 | 1 | -2900 |
342 : Design Occupations | 800 | 0.1 | -1800 |
343 : Sports and Fitness Occupations | 7500 | 0.5 | -500 |
351 : Transport Associate Professionals | 3000 | 0.2 | 200 |
352 : Legal Associate Professionals | 3300 | 0.2 | 1100 |
353 : Finance Associate Professionals | 7700 | 0.5 | 1600 |
354 : Business Associate Professionals | 11400 | 0.8 | 900 |
355 : Sales, Marketing and Related Associate Professionals | 28300 | 2 | 4100 |
356 : Public Services Associate Professionals | 9500 | 0.7 | 1400 |
357 : HR, Training and Other Vocational Associate Guidance Professionals | 20000 | 1.4 | 2700 |
358 : Regulatory Associate Professionals | 9800 | 0.7 | 2900 |
411 : Administrative Occupations: Government and Related Organisations | 31400 | 2.2 | 6500 |
412 : Administrative Occupations: Finance | 33900 | 2.3 | -3500 |
413 : Administrative Occupations: Records | 13900 | 1 | -2100 |
414 : Administrative Occupations: Office Managers and Supervisors | 14600 | 1 | 4300 |
415 : Other Administrative Occupations | 24400 | 1.7 | -2400 |
421 : Secretarial and Related Occupations | 20800 | 1.4 | -3300 |
511 : Agricultural and Related Trades | 25300 | 1.7 | 1700 |
521 : Metal Forming, Welding and Related Trades | 5300 | 0.4 | -300 |
522 : Metal Machining, Fitting and Instrument Making Trades | 11000 | 0.8 | 1700 |
523 : Vehicle Trades | 15400 | 1.1 | 800 |
524 : Electrical and Electronic Trades | 23500 | 1.6 | 700 |
525 : Skilled Metal, Electrical and Electronic Trades Supervisors | 3300 | 0.2 | 1000 |
531 : Construction and Building Trades | 34600 | 2.4 | 300 |
532 : Building Finishing Trades | 11700 | 0.8 | -1400 |
533 : Construction and Building Trades Supervisors | 1800 | 0.1 | -900 |
541 : Textiles and Garments Trades | 1600 | 0.1 | 700 |
542 : Printing Trades | 1000 | 0.1 | -300 |
543 : Food Preparation and Hospitality Trades | 21800 | 1.5 | 1300 |
544 : Other Skilled Trades | 4200 | 0.3 | 200 |
611 : Teaching and Childcare Support Occupations | 35700 | 2.5 | -100 |
612 : Animal Care and Control Services | 4500 | 0.3 | -100 |
613 : Caring Personal Services | 75100 | 5.2 | -3900 |
621 : Leisure and Travel Services | 6700 | 0.5 | 400 |
622 : Hairdressers and Related Services | 10200 | 0.7 | -100 |
623 : Housekeeping and Related Services | 3700 | 0.3 | -2600 |
624 : Cleaning and Housekeeping Managers and Supervisors | 3300 | 0.2 | -200 |
625 : Bed and Breakfast and Guest House Owners and Proprietors | 900 | 0.1 | 400 |
631 : Community and Civil Enforcement Occupations | 1200 | 0.1 | -700 |
711 : Sales Assistants and Retail Cashiers | 53300 | 3.7 | -5900 |
712 : Sales Related Occupations | 4300 | 0.3 | -1700 |
713 : Shopkeepers and Sales Supervisors | 12500 | 0.9 | -100 |
721 : Customer Service Occupations | 24600 | 1.7 | -3500 |
722 : Customer Service Supervisors | 3000 | 0.2 | -400 |
811 : Process Operatives | 17200 | 1.2 | -100 |
812 : Metal Working Machine Operatives | 3100 | 0.2 | 200 |
813 : Plant and Machine Operatives | 4300 | 0.3 | -1900 |
814 : Assemblers and Routine Operatives | 10900 | 0.8 | -1800 |
815 : Construction Operatives | 8700 | 0.6 | 200 |
816 : Production, Factory and Assembly Supervisors | 2500 | 0.2 | -800 |
821 : Road Transport Drivers | 38100 | 2.6 | -6800 |
822 : Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives | 9900 | 0.7 | 3300 |
823 : Other Drivers and Transport Operatives | 3500 | 0.2 | 800 |
911 : Elementary Agricultural Occupations | 6200 | 0.4 | 2400 |
912 : Elementary Construction Occupations | 8800 | 0.6 | 1100 |
913 : Elementary Process Plant Occupations | 10300 | 0.7 | 500 |
921 : Elementary Administration Occupations | 8000 | 0.5 | 2000 |
922 : Elementary Cleaning Occupations | 29100 | 2 | 700 |
923 : Elementary Security Occupations | 9100 | 0.6 | -1900 |
924 : Elementary Sales Occupations | 5500 | 0.4 | 600 |
925 : Elementary Storage Occupations | 19000 | 1.3 | -200 |
926 : Other Elementary Services Occupations | 55200 | 3.8 | 6000 |
The table above examines how the major occupational groups changed in Wales in 2022. Caring personal service occupations, SOC 613, at 5.2% of the workforce were the largest group though declining in number over the year, but teaching professionals (4.2% of the Welsh workforce) were not far behind. Overall professional level (SOCs 111 to 358) saw modest growth of around 13,000 workers in 2022, while non-graduate employment fell by around 9,200, with road transport drivers, sales assistants, personal care (as mentioned), secretarial, administrative and customer service occupations all seeing substantial falls in employment. These do align with long-term UK trends.
The following table examines skills projections for Wales to 2035.
Number of employees (in thousands) | 2020 projection | 2035 projection | Net change in number of employees between 2020 and 2035 | Replacement demand between 2020 and 2035 | Requirement between 2020 and 2035 (thousands) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 Corporate managers and directors | 20 | 22.3 | 2.3 | 12.3 | 14.6 |
12 Other managers and proprietors | 8.4 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 10.2 |
21 Science, research, engineering and technology professionals | 16.1 | 22.1 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 14.8 |
22 Health professionals | 31.5 | 37.3 | 5.8 | 21.1 | 26.8 |
23 Teaching and other educational professionals | 19.8 | 12.9 | -6.9 | 9.3 | 2.4 |
24 Business, media and public service professionals | 23.3 | 27.2 | 3.9 | 14.3 | 18.2 |
31 Science, engineering and technology associate professionals | 5.4 | 6 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 |
32 Health and social care associate professionals | 10.3 | 25.6 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 28.7 |
33 Protective service occupations | 4 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 |
34 Culture, media and sports occupations | 6.4 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
35 Business and public service associate professionals | 16.6 | 19.2 | 2.6 | 9.7 | 12.3 |
41 Administrative occupations | 25.4 | 37.7 | 12.2 | 19.1 | 31.3 |
42 Secretarial and related occupations | 4.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 8.1 |
51 Skilled agricultural and related trades | 4.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 5.1 |
52 Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades | 2.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
53 Skilled construction and building trades | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1 |
54 Textiles, printing and other skilled trades | 2.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 4.7 |
61 Caring personal service occupations | 12 | 18.3 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 16.6 |
62 Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations | 2.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.6 |
63 Community and civil enforcement occupations | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
71 Sales occupations | 11.9 | 18.1 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 15.1 |
72 Customer service occupations | 3.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 5.3 |
81 Process, plant and machine operatives | 2.1 | 5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 5 |
82 Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
91 Elementary trades and related occupations | 1 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 4.9 |
92 Elementary administration and service occupations | 10.9 | 14.5 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 12 |
This table examines the overall net change in employment in each area. Some occupational groups are expected to fall in the medium term, largely due to automation, along with replacement demand - the demand for workers generated by replacing those who leave the jobs market (usually through retirement). As a result of replacement demand, Wales will still need to recruit workers in all of the areas covered even though some workforces will be smaller overall than in 2020. But the bulk of demand in Wales (and the UK as a whole) is at graduate level.
Wales is projected to need 14,800 more STEM professionals, 26,800 new health professionals (mainly doctors and senior nurses), 18,200 more business services professionals (particularly in Cardiff and Swansea), 28,700 more health and social care professionals (mainly nurses and social workers) and all areas of graduate level recruitment are expected to increase. These are very testing numbers. Wales needs around 1,000 new STEM professionals every year from 2020 to 2035. Last year around 600 first degree graduates are known to have found roles as STEM professionals last year (there are separate projections at postgraduate level), and although better than some parts of the UK, this is still too few.
Graduate outcomes from Welsh institutions
The next section examines Graduate Outcomes data for the 2020/21 graduating cohort. These graduates actually left their institutions during the COVID pandemic but were surveyed 15 months later at the end of 2022, after all remaining COVID restrictions had been lifted, and by which time the labour market was far stronger. The data shows this change - there is little sign of even short-term career damage as a consequence of COVID for the cohort as a whole, although there are likely to be some graduates who found it harder to start their career.
Outcome,Proportion of graduates Working full time,55.4 Working part time,10.7 Voluntary or unpaid work,1 Working and studying,11.6 Further study,10.2 Unemployed,5 Other,6.2
Outcomes for graduates from Welsh institutions were slightly more positive than the UK as a whole. Unemployment was at the lowest since Graduate Outcomes data was inaugurated, at 5%, and full time work was at 55.4%. Working and studying was also high, at 11.6%, and this group covers people working full time and studying as well, meaning just under two thirds of Welsh graduates were in full time work of some kind after 15 months, and 21.8% were in further study - somewhat higher than the national average.
Type of work,2020/21 graduates Management,3.5 Science,2.4 Engineering,7.1 IT,5.5 Health ,17.4 Education,7.6 Legal social welfare,6.8 Business HR and finance,8.3 Marketing PR sales,4.3 Arts design media,4.6 Other professionals,4.2 Clerical secretarial administrative,6.8 Childcare health education occupations,6.1 Skilled trades crafts and other vocational occupations,2.9 Retail waiting and other customer service,9.1 Other occupations,3.6
In common with other regions of the UK, health is the most common occupation for this cohort of graduates, with over one in six graduates becoming health professionals. Retail and service industry jobs, not professional-level roles, were the next most important, but business and finance jobs, driven by a strong jobs market in Swansea and Cardiff, were the next most important at 8.3%.
The large majority of the cohort (72%) were in professional-level employment 15 months after graduation. Longitudinal cohort studies suggest that graduates in administrative occupations, which make up 6.8% of the working cohort, often move quite quickly into professional-level jobs after gaining work experience. There are concerns, however, about how easily graduates in retail positions find it to move into professional level jobs.
Industries,2020/21 graduates Arts sports and leisure,4.1 Local and central govt,7.7 Social care,3.8 Health,20.1 Education,12.1 Marketing and PR,0.8 Other business and finance,8 Management consultancy,0.6 Legal and accountancy,3.8 IT and telecoms,4.6 Media and publishing,2 Hospitality and tourism,5.3 Logistics,1.7 Retail,8 Construct eng R&D,7.9 Manufacturing,8 Other industries,1.5
The graph above examines the industries that graduates worked in rather than the jobs they were doing - this examines the difference between an accountant working for an accountancy firm, and an accountant working for a manufacturer, for example. In Chart 2, both accountants would be classed under their occupation (accountancy), but in Chart 3, they will appear under the industry that they work in.
Like almost all of the rest of the UK, the health industry (and specifically the NHS) is the largest employer of graduates in Wales, with education a little way behind. But manufacturing, construction and finance are all very important industries for Welsh graduates. Within these wider categories, the top five employment sectors for Welsh graduates were hospitals, other health, local and central government, primary teaching and secondary teaching. Other important graduate employment industries in Wales included computer programming, engineering consultancy, law, accountancy and tax, social work and higher education.
Number of employees,2020/21 graduates 1 to 9,4.6 10 to 49,6.7 50 to 99,6.3 100 to 249,5.6 250 to 499,6.2 500 to 999,3.8 Over 1000,66.8
Small and medium-sized enterprises are a little less important to graduate employment in Wales than in some other parts of the UK, with 23.2% of graduates starting their career at an SME. SME employment has fallen since the COVID pandemic and has only recently begun to improve as SMEs were disproportionately affected, so we hope to see this figure increasing in the future, but it is likely that SMEs wishing to recruit graduates may need support from institutions. Many are competing with larger businesses with better branding and marketing spend and more experience recruiting graduates, and in sectors with workforce shortages and operate at a significant disadvantage as a consequence.
Migration groups,Wales Loyals,57 Stayers,12.3 Returners,20.6 Incomers,10.1
This analysis uses the standard graduate migration groups developed by the author.
- Loyals are those who graduated from Wales and who studied in Wales, and they make up the majority of Welsh graduate employees.
- Stayers are those from elsewhere in the UK who studied in Wales and remained in Wales to work. Cardiff is a particularly important employment location for this group.
- Returners left Wales to study and returned home to work, and are spread across Wales, although Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham and north Wales are important here.
- Incomers are graduates who are not from Wales and didn't attend Welsh institutions but work in Wales. They're often found in highly paid roles in health and engineering, which means we often find Incomers in Cardiff, but also in the engineering employers of Flintshire. Incomers are often from regions quite close to Wales, and Cheshire and Shropshire are two most common domiciles of Incomers to Wales.
The Welsh regions
Wales has been broken up into three regions to examine local labour markets in more detail. They have been grouped into a version of the regions used by the Senedd to examine commonalities in local labour markets, but also to try to ensure that we have enough graduates in each region to analyse. Any such regional classification has compromises, and this seems the best way we can get reasonably equal regions.
The regions are:
- North Wales, consisting of the local authorities of Ynys Mon (Anglesey), Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flint and Wrexham
- Mid and South West Wales, a mainly rural region with urban concentration in the south around Swansea, consisting of Powys, Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Swansea, Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend, and the Vale of Glamorgan
- South East Wales, essentially the region around Cardiff, comprising Rhondda, Cynon, Taff, Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Monmouthshire, Newport and Cardiff. We will examine each in turn.
North Wales
This region consists of the local authorities of Ynys Mon (Anglesey), Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flint and Wrexham. Degree awarding institutions covered by Graduate Outcomes data and located in the region are Glyndwr, Bangor and Grwp Llandrillo Menai.
This is a large, dispersed labour market with significant rural and sparsely populated mountainous areas, and pockets of deprivation along the coast. Renewables, agriculture, food and drink, travel and tourism and manufacturing (particularly in aerospace), are also important to the region.
- Proportion of regional population with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 40.6%.
- Proportion of economically active in region with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 45.1%.
- Proportion of regional workforce in professional level employment at the end of 2022: 43%.
- Proportion of 2020/21 graduates reporting some form of self-employment or preparation for self-employment 15 months after graduation: 11.8%.
Standard Occupational Group (SOC 2020) | Number of employees in 2022 | Percentage of workforce in 2022 | Year-on-year change from 2021 |
---|---|---|---|
11: corporate managers and directors | 15000 | 4.6 | -100 |
12: other managers and proprietors | 13900 | 4.3 | -2,800 |
21: science, research, engineering and technology profs | 12500 | 3.9 | -200 |
22: health professionals | 20500 | 6.3 | 3,000 |
23: teaching and educational professionals | 16100 | 5 | 1,000 |
24: business, media and public service professionals | 16700 | 5.1 | -1,700 |
31: science, engineering and technology associate profs | 6800 | 2.1 | 300 |
32: health & social care assoc. professionals | 8500 | 2.6 | 100 |
33: protective service occupations | 7500 | 2.3 | 2,300 |
34: culture, media and sports occupations | 5700 | 1.8 | -200 |
35: business & public service assoc. professionals | 16200 | 5 | 900 |
41: administrative occupations | 21200 | 6.5 | -1,600 |
42: secretarial and related occupations | 6300 | 1.9 | 1,300 |
51: skilled agricultural and related trades | 7700 | 2.4 | 400 |
52: skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades | 14400 | 4.4 | 1,500 |
53: skilled construction and building trades | 11400 | 3.5 | -500 |
54: textiles, printing and other skilled trades | 6500 | 2 | -1,100 |
61: caring personal service occupations | 27600 | 8.5 | 1,500 |
62: leisure, travel and related personal service occupations | 7200 | 2.2 | -1,700 |
71: sales occupations | 14100 | 4.4 | -2,700 |
72: customer service occupations | 4600 | 1.4 | -1,800 |
81: process, plant and machines operatives | 10800 | 3.3 | -1,200 |
82: transport & mobile machine drivers/operatives | 15300 | 4.7 | 2,900 |
91: elementary trades and related occupations | 6300 | 1.9 | 700 |
92: elementary administration & service occupations | 30200 | 9.3 | 6,300 |
Data from 2022 reveals that the number of professional-level jobs in the region (this data examines the whole workforce, not just new graduates) rose by 2,600, with health professionals a particularly strong riser. The picture was mixed for graduate-level employment though, with business professionals seeing a fall.
The workforce for workers below professional level shrank by 4,000, with most areas seeing falls. Elementary occupations, transport and mobile machine drivers and care workers all saw increases, along with well-paid skilled jobs in trades, many associated with the region's strong manufacturing sector.
Type of work,2020/21 Management,2.4 Science,3.1 Engineering,7.4 IT,2.4 Health ,23.8 Education,9.1 Legal social welfare,8.4 Business HR and finance,3.1 Marketing PR sales,3.3 Arts design media,2.8 Other professionals,3.2 Clerical secretarial administrative,7.3 Childcare health education occupations,7.3 Skilled trades crafts and other vocational occupations,2.9 Retail waiting and other customer service,9.6 Other occupations,4
Public sector employment dominates, with over 40% of graduates working in health, education and social care professional roles. But engineering employment is well over the national average as a consequence of local manufacturing strength. Business services and marketing roles, however, are well below national averages as the region has few of the larger urban areas that these industries tend to thrive in, and IT roles are also much lower than national averages. Overall, 68.9% of working graduates were in professional-level employment 15 months after graduation, a little (but not excessively) below the national average of 75.6% for this cohort.
Industry,2020/21 graduates Manufacturing,10.9 Construction engineering R&D,6.1 Retail,9.6 Logistics,1.2 Hospitality and tourism,4.9 Media and publishing,0.8 IT and telecoms,1.5 Legal and accountancy,1.3 Management consultancy,0 Other business and finance,4.8 Marketing and PR,0.4 Education,10.9 Health,27.8 Social care,5.6 Local and central govt,8.8 Arts sports and leisure,4.3 Other industries,1
Health is the most important employer, but the region's powerful manufacturing industry means that it ties with education as the next most important industry for graduates. However, the lack of large urban centres means that industries associated with graduate recruitment in cities, in business, finance and IT, are nowhere near as significant local employers as in the other regions of Wales.
Number of employees banding employment,2020/21 graduates 1 to 9,3.3 10 to 49,5.9 50 to 99,5.8 100 to 249,6.2 250 to 499,3.3 500 to 999,1.6 Over 1000,73.8
The dominance of the NHS and of large manufacturing employers means that businesses of over 1,000 employees are more important locally than in other parts of the country, and 21.2% of new graduates started work in SMEs. The dispersed nature of the labour market in North Wales means this might not accurately reflect demand as many SMEs will be located relatively far from providers and so might find it hard to access graduates if they need them.
Migration groups,North Wales Loyals,34 Stayers,7.4 Returners,38 Incomers,20.7
72% of graduates working locally were originally from North Wales, just under half had studied in the region and just over half that group, 38% in all, had studied elsewhere and then returned to North Wales to work. But generally, they did not go far to study - easily the most common institutions for Returners were the University of Chester, Liverpool John Moores and Liverpool University, with Open also important.
Only around 7.4% of students who were not from North Wales originally went to a local institution and stayed - and the lion’s share of this group were from Cheshire, Shropshire and the Wirral rather than elsewhere in Wales. 20.7% of local employees, however, were neither from North Wales, nor had they studied there. They tended to be from, again, Cheshire, Shropshire and the Wirral, but also from Northern Ireland (but not other parts of Wales) and have attended either other institutions in Wales (particularly Swansea or Cardiff universities) or Chester, John Moores or Liverpool University. Medicine was comfortably the most common job for Incomers, but IT and engineering jobs - all very well paid - were also important.
My job is meaningful,2020/21 graduates Strongly agree,40.5 Agree,44.1 Neither agree nor disagree,6.9 Disagree,5.3 Strongly disagree,3.2
Graduates working locally were overwhelmingly positive about the value of their job, with 84.6% of working graduates saying that they were doing meaningful work, and even 64% of those in jobs below professional level saying that they felt their job had meaning (and 6% of those in professional-level jobs disagreed that they were in meaningful work). Graduates in roles below professional level that were most likely to say that their work had meaning were in caring, or health or education support jobs. Notably, graduates working in Anglesey are among the most likely in the UK to have chosen their job based on location, and only graduates working in the Scottish isles are as likely to cite location as the region for their job choice.
Mid and South West Wales
This is a large, mainly rural region with urban concentration in the south around Swansea, consisting of Powys, Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Swansea, Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend, and the Vale of Glamorgan. The universities of Aberystwyth, Trinity St Davids and Swansea lie within this region, as do the smaller degree awarding institutions of Gower College Swansea and Grwp NPTC Group.
Important industries in the region include agriculture, food and drink, tourism, advanced manufacturing and business services in the important urban labour market of Swansea.
The region has around the national average of workers with degrees and jobs at professional level, both under half, although the majority of the workforces in Ceredigion (where the University of Aberystwyth is located) and the Vale of Glamorgan have degree equivalent qualifications, and the majority of jobs in Ceredigion are at professional level (Vale of Glamorgan currently stands at 49%).
- Proportion of regional population with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 42.7%.
- Proportion of economically active in region with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 47.8%.
- Proportion of regional workforce in professional level employment at the end of 2022: 44.4%.
- Proportion of 2020/21 graduates reporting some form of self-employment or preparation for self-employment 15 months after graduation: 11.3%.
Standard Occupational Group (SOC 2020) | Number of employees in 2022 | Percentage of workforce in 2022 | Y-o-Y change from 2021 |
---|---|---|---|
11: corporate managers and directors | 30200 | 5.5 | -1,600 |
12: other managers and proprietors | 19900 | 3.7 | -2,900 |
21: science, research, engineering and technology profs | 29900 | 5.5 | 6,300 |
22: health professionals | 31900 | 5.9 | 400 |
23: teaching and educational professionals | 27900 | 5.1 | -2,900 |
24: business, media and public service professionals | 30800 | 5.7 | -1,000 |
31: science, engineering and technology associate profs | 9000 | 1.6 | 500 |
32: health & social care assoc. professionals | 11400 | 2.1 | -1,300 |
33: protective service occupations | 9000 | 1.7 | 1,100 |
34: culture, media and sports occupations | 8000 | 1.5 | -2,700 |
35: business & public service assoc. professionals | 33400 | 6.1 | 6,700 |
41: administrative occupations | 46100 | 8.5 | 4,300 |
42: secretarial and related occupations | 10000 | 1.8 | 1,800 |
51: skilled agricultural and related trades | 13500 | 2.5 | 400 |
52: skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades | 20100 | 3.7 | -1,000 |
53: skilled construction and building trades | 17500 | 3.2 | -900 |
54: textiles, printing and other skilled trades | 11800 | 2.2 | 1,900 |
61: caring personal service occupations | 44300 | 8.1 | -300 |
62: leisure, travel and related personal service occupations | 8800 | 1.6 | -1,500 |
71: sales occupations | 28600 | 5.3 | 4,000 |
72: customer service occupations | 10600 | 1.9 | -2,100 |
81: process, plant and machines operatives | 16200 | 3 | -2,500 |
82: transport & mobile machine drivers/operatives | 16400 | 3 | -100 |
91: elementary trades and related occupations | 10800 | 2 | 2,100 |
92: elementary administration & service occupations | 46400 | 8.5 | 600 |
Administrative occupations - particularly in Swansea - and elementary service roles are the most common in the region, while at professional-level, business and public service jobs (Swansea again dominating here) are the most important followed by public sector jobs in health and teaching (particularly in the large regions of Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion) and science (in Swansea and the Vale of Glamorgan) also important. The professional-level workforce increased by 2,600 in 2022, driven by increases in the business services labour market in Swansea in particular, but jobs below professional level fell 6,700, meaning the region finished 2022 with fewer workers than at the start of the year.
Type of work,2020/21 graduates Management,3 Science,1.9 Engineering,5.1 IT,2.8 Health ,21.6 Education,8.4 Legal social welfare,8 Business HR and finance,3.1 Marketing PR sales,2.7 Arts design media,2 Other professionals,4.1 Clerical secretarial administrative,7.1 Childcare health education occupations,7.3 Skilled trades crafts and other vocational occupations,2.7 Retail waiting and other customer service,9.1 Other occupations,3.1
Nearly 40% of graduates in the region started work in public sector jobs in health, education and social care, and this was the most common Welsh region for graduates to start in social work and community work and as primary teachers, occupational therapists, vets, paramedics and careers professionals. Overall, 68.2% of newly employed graduates in the region were in professional level employment in the region.
Industries,2020/21 graduates Manufacturing,6.9 Construction engineering R&D,4.8 Retail,8 Logistics,0.9 Hospitality and tourism,5.6 Media and publishing,0.7 IT and telecoms,2.1 Legal and accountancy,1.6 Management consultancy,0.2 Other business and finance,5.4 Marketing and PR,0.2 Education,13.9 Health,27.9 Social care,4.5 Local and central govt,11.9 Arts sports and leisure,4.1 Other industries,1.3
Over half of graduate recruitment was in local and central government (which includes social care), health and education. This was the most important region for employment for graduates in agriculture, the drinks industry, veterinary activity, libraries and museums and sports and recreation, and computer manufacture, construction (but not civil engineering - the region recruits few civil engineers, and this is likely to be a supply issue), tourism and property industry jobs are also important. Although Swansea is an important centre for business services, it is much smaller in graduate recruitment terms than Cardiff and so the latter tends to dominate recruitment in those areas.
Number of employees banding employment {ZNOEMPBAND},Number of graduates 1 to 9,5.7 10 to 49,7.4 50 to 99,3.7 100 to 249,5 250 to 499,3 500 to 999,2.8 Over 1000,72.4
Large businesses dominate graduate recruitment in the region, the NHS being a particularly important recruiter here. This region is rich in small businesses but only 21.8% of new graduates started in one. Important industries for SME recruitment of graduates locally included law, veterinary work, specialist tech consultancy and manufacture, construction and IT.
Migration groups,2020/21 graduates Loyals,42.8 Stayers,9.6 Returners,31.4 Incomers,16.2
Nearly half of graduates working locally were from Mid and South West Wales and had attended an institution in the region - in total, three quarters of graduates in the region had come from the region originally. Most commonly, Returners had grown up in the region and come back to it after going to one of the Cardiff universities, although the Bristol institutions of UWE and Bristol, the University of Plymouth, Exeter, Gloucestershire, Harper Adams (in Shropshire) and Bangor were also important. Graduates originally from outside the region who work there are largely from South Wales, although Shropshire is also important. Graduates from North Wales, however, do not seem particularly likely to work here.
Job is meaningful,2020/21 graduates Strongly agree,43.5 Agree,41.8 Neither agree nor disagree,6.6 Disagree,5.3 Strongly disagree,2.9
Graduates working in the region are very likely to consider their job to be meaningful, with 85.3% of graduates working in Mid and South West Wales agreeing that they had meaningful work. Even 68.3% of graduates in roles below professional level nevertheless felt that their job was meaningful, again suggesting that there are nuances to the idea of a 'successful' outcome for graduates. It's noticeable that graduates in jobs below professional level were particularly and unusually likely to cite location as a reason for their job choice and a substantial minority of leavers in this cohort actively chose to work locally, many in non-graduate jobs, and they were very likely to consider their jobs to be meaningful. Indeed, Ceredigion is the most likely local authority in the UK outside Anglesey and the Scottish Islands for graduates to have chosen their job primarily on location.
South East Wales
This is the region around Cardiff, the strongest graduate labour market in Wales and a nationally important graduate labour market in the UK, along with the nearby city of Newport. This is a largely urban labour market and different in character and roles than the other Welsh regions, with a much stronger business services jobs market.
Rhondda, Cynon, Taff; Merthyr Tydfil; Caerphilly; Blaenau Gwent; Torfaen; Monmouthshire; Newport and Cardiff make up the region, and it contains the universities of Cardiff, Cardiff Metropolitan and the University of South Wales. This region is also unusual as the strong English graduate labour market of Bristol is very close by and there is some evidence that the labour markets overlap. This region of Wales has more professional-level roles than graduates.
- Proportion of regional population with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 40.6%.
- Proportion of regional workforce with RQF4+ at the end of 2022: 47.3%.
- Proportion of regional workforce in professional level employment at the end of 2022: 47.6%.
- Proportion of 2020/21 graduates reporting some form of self-employment or preparation for self-employment 15 months after graduation: 11.9%.
Standard Occupational Group (SOC 2020) | Number of employees in 2022 | Percentage of workforce in 2022 | Y-o-Y change from 2021 |
---|---|---|---|
11: corporate managers and directors | 37000 | 6.3 | 3,400 |
12: other managers and proprietors | 16800 | 2.9 | -4,300 |
21: science, research, engineering and technology profs | 34900 | 5.9 | 5,400 |
22: health professionals | 31900 | 5.4 | 900 |
23: teaching and educational professionals | 28700 | 4.9 | -1,800 |
24: business, media and public service professionals | 46000 | 7.8 | 1,100 |
31: science, engineering and technology associate profs | 12800 | 2.2 | -600 |
32: health & social care assoc. professionals | 8400 | 1.4 | -4,400 |
33: protective service occupations | 10000 | 1.7 | 3,800 |
34: culture, media and sports occupations | 9700 | 1.7 | -2,300 |
35: business & public service assoc. professionals | 43300 | 7.4 | 7,200 |
41: administrative occupations | 51000 | 8.7 | 200 |
42: secretarial and related occupations | 4500 | 0.8 | -6,300 |
51: skilled agricultural and related trades | 4100 | 0.7 | 900 |
52: skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades | 24100 | 4.1 | 3,500 |
53: skilled construction and building trades | 19300 | 3.3 | -400 |
54: textiles, printing and other skilled trades | 10100 | 1.7 | 900 |
61: caring personal service occupations | 43400 | 7.4 | -5,300 |
62: leisure, travel and related personal service occupations | 8700 | 1.5 | 900 |
71: sales occupations | 27400 | 4.7 | -8,900 |
72: customer service occupations | 12400 | 2.1 | -100 |
81: process, plant and machines operatives | 19600 | 3.3 | -700 |
82: transport & mobile machine drivers/operatives | 19900 | 3.4 | -5,500 |
91: elementary trades and related occupations | 8200 | 1.4 | 1,200 |
92: elementary administration & service occupations | 49300 | 8.4 | 400 |
Cardiff's strength in business services and its position at the centre of Welsh government means that administrative occupations are the largest group of employees locally, but at graduate level business professionals and associate professionals and associate professionals are very important, making up around one in six of all workers in the region. Although roles in crucial public sector areas of teaching and health dropped last year, the professional-level workforce in South East Wales still grew by 8,400 in 2022, with business services again particularly important, but STEM professionals also increasing by over 5,000.
However, several key areas of work for those without HE qualifications fell substantially, and overall jobs below professional level fell by 19,200, meaning that although there were more people in professional-level jobs at the end of 2022, there were fewer people working overall - and so the local labour market had a higher proportion of professional level roles by the end of 2022. In particular, the Cardiff labour market had 57.7% of jobs at professional level at the end of 2022 and around 54% of the local workforce had degree or equivalent, suggesting that Cardiff has a buoyant demand for graduates.
It is the much small and more dispersed - but relatively affluent - labour market of Monmouthshire that has the highest proportion of jobs at professional level in Wales (61%), while another small labour market in Bridgend was also majority professional level. However, this region also has significant pockets of deprivation and much more difficult labour markets, and Merthyr Tydfil has the lowest level of professional employment in Wales, at 34%.
Type of work,2020/21 graduates Management,2.2 Science,2.5 Engineering,6.6 IT,4.4 Health ,18.1 Education,6.8 Legal social welfare,8.1 Business HR and finance,9.6 Marketing PR sales,3.5 Arts design media,3.9 Other professionals,3 Clerical secretarial administrative,7 Childcare health education occupations,6 Skilled trades crafts and other vocational occupations,1.6 Retail waiting and other customer service,8 Other occupations,1.9
This is a different pattern to the rest of Wales, with a very strong business sector and a labour market that compares with the larger UK graduate cities. Health remains the most important employment sector, however, and while the region has a higher level of engineering (particularly civil engineering, a critical shortage subject in the UK), the data suggests a lower level of recruitment in IT and marketing than might be expected for a city of Cardiff's size and importance.
Some clue to what might be happening here is given by the nearby city of Bristol being particularly strong in these areas, although both Cardiff and Bristol are strong in some areas of the arts and media, for example, so it is not always the case that some activity that could be happening in Cardiff might be displacing to Bristol. There is a possibility also that the reverse might be happening to an extent - Cardiff's role as an administrative and legal centre means it has a strong law sector, much stronger than Bristol's as a graduate recruiter at the moment. Overall, 73.7% of new graduates from 2020/21 and working locally were in professional level jobs after 15 months, rather higher than the rest of Wales.
Industries,2020/21 graduates Manufacturing,6.8 Construction engineering R&D,6.8 Retail,6.3 Logistics,1 Hospitality and tourism,4.1 Media and publishing,2.1 IT and telecoms,3.4 Legal and accountancy,5 Management consultancy,0.5 Other business and finance,11 Marketing and PR,0.9 Education,12.4 Health,22 Social care,3.9 Local and central govt,9.7 Arts sports and leisure,2.7 Other industries,1.3
Health and education are important graduate industries, and the location of Cardiff as the seat of Welsh administration means that government roles are also much more common than in the rest of Wales. The region also has a strong business and finance sector (particularly strong in financial services, and in pensions and insurance), and the Welsh industrial legacy means that manufacturing and construction are also rather stronger than in many other predominantly urban graduate labour markets in the UK, giving this region a unique employment footprint. But there is less social care, IT, marketing, and management than might be expected and these are all potential growth opportunities for the local graduate labour market.
Number of employees banding employment {ZNOEMPBAND},Number of graduates 1 to 9,3.8 10 to 49,5.9 50 to 99,5.4 100 to 249,5.3 250 to 499,5.6 500 to 999,4.1 Over 1000,69.8
Although most graduates work for larger businesses in South East Wales, SMEs do make up a larger proportion of graduate employment than in the other Welsh regions. Cardiff's economy did take a hit from COVID and it will take some time for the local SME ecosystem to fully recover. Locally, SMEs are important graduate recruiters in STEM (particularly biosciences, civil engineering and IT), in law and in financial services and these sectors rely on a strong supply of local graduates to thrive.
Migration groups,2020/21 graduates Loyals,37 Stayers,21.3 Returners,22 Incomers,19.7
Cardiff has a high demand for graduates and brings students in from across the UK, so it has a very different pattern here than the rest of Wales. Nevertheless, the majority (59%) of graduates working in South East Wales were originally from the region, and it's a popular labour market for graduates from across South Wales (but less so North Wales). 37% of the workforce were Loyals who were from the region, had studied locally and stayed to work. 22% were Returners who were from the region, studied elsewhere (most usually one of the Swansea institutions, Aberystwyth, or English institutions in neighbouring regions such as UWE, Gloucestershire, Bristol, Birmingham, Exeter or Reading).
A quarter of graduates starting work here were English, many of whom had gone to a local university and stayed. They tended to be from English regions close to the Welsh borders, although there were graduates from affluent regions of the English Home Counties who had attended Cardiff University and stayed - Cardiff seems to be particularly effective among UK cities at retaining graduates who had studied locally but were from elsewhere.
Job is meaningful,2020/21 graduates Strongly agree,42.6 Agree,41.9 Neither agree nor disagree,7.7 Disagree,5.3 Strongly disagree,2.5
84.5% of new graduates working locally felt that their job was meaningful - the regions of Wales all have very similar (high) proportions answering this question in the positive. 68.9% of graduates working in South East Wales who were not in professional-level employment said that their job was, nevertheless, meaningful, while 4% who were in professional-level employment said that their job was not, showing that standard metrics don't always give the full picture of whether graduates feel that their early career roles are worthwhile.
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