UK graduate labour market update: 8 November

Early exiters, training trends and accent bias - Charlie Ball covers all the key reports of the last weeks in his latest labour market update

The latest rapid indicators of economic and social change are now available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

• The number of UK online job adverts was broadly unchanged on 28 October 2022 compared with the same day the previous week. It was, however, 16% lower than the equivalent day of 2021 and 19% above the February 2020 average.
• Of the 28 job advert categories, 24 were below the level seen on the equivalent day of 2021, but only eight were below the February 2020 average.
• Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, 11 were below the levels seen in the equivalent day of 2021. However, all regions remained above the February 2020 average.
• Legal (82% of February 2020) and marketing/PR (95%) are two of the three graduate sectors below the Feb 2020 average; the third is healthcare but that had already been staffing up at the February 2020 reference point.
• Sales by small businesses recorded by Xero decreased by 6% in September 2022 compared with August 2022, but were 4% higher than September 2021. These figures are not adjusted for inflation. Jobs in small businesses were unchanged compared with the previous month and were 4% lower than September 2021.

The Recruitment & Employment Confederation's (REC) new Labour Market Tracker is out for November:

• There were 154,000 new job postings in the week of 17 to 23 October, 3.9% lower than a month earlier.
• But there were over 217,000 in the previous week (10 to 17 October), suggesting demand remains high overall.
• The number of active postings has remained relatively stable, with between 1.4 to 1.5 million active job adverts since mid-August

The rise of 'early exiters'

DEMOS has released new research into 'Early Exiters':

• Compared to before the pandemic, there are over 100,000 more people aged 50 to 64 who are no longer in work because of a long-term health condition. The UK is an outlier in this regard: it is the only high-income country which has seen a sustained rise in economic inactivity among this age group since the start of the pandemic.
• A rise in economic inactivity among over 50s has contributed to high vacancies and labour shortages during 2022.
• Many older people are struggling financially as a result of leaving work early. Some people said they could not afford to pay their bills, and there is a real risk of rising poverty among over 50s who have left work due to health conditions.
• Almost all participants in the DEMOS research said they would have preferred to continue working if they could have. They felt that they had no choice but to leave work early, despite the financial risks of doing so. This was due to experiences of ageism and ableism as well as insufficient support from their employers or the NHS.
• Older people are most likely to say that stress, mental health conditions and musculoskeletal issues have prevented them from working or caused them to work fewer hours.

The Sutton Trust looks at accent bias in UK employment in this very interesting report:

• Accent is arguably the primary signal of socioeconomic status. It is also a major indicator of many other aspects of a person's social background, some of them protected characteristics, including gender, race, age, sexuality, and many others.
• A hierarchy of accent prestige has been entrenched in the United Kingdom for centuries, with Received Pronunciation (sometimes known as 'Queen's English' or 'BBC English') the dominant accent in positions of authority across the media, politics, the civil service, courtrooms, and the corporate sector. Public attitudes to different accents have remained largely unchanged over time, with the standard Received Pronunciation accent, French-accented English, and 'national' standard varieties (Scottish, American, Southern Irish) all ranked highly, while accents associated with industrial cities of England, like Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham (commonly stereotyped as 'working class accents') and ethnic minority accents (Afro-Caribbean, Indian) are the lowest ranked.
• Self-consciousness and anxiety about accent bias are highest during university, particularly when approaching the end of a degree and facing entry into a chosen career. 35% of university students reported being self-conscious about their accent, a higher proportion than among university applicants (largely 17 to 18 year-olds) (24%) and professionals in the workplace (23%).
• Many students reported having been mocked, criticised or singled out in educational settings due to their accents (30% of university students and 29% of university applicants). This was also experienced by professionals in work situations (25%).
• Employees report higher levels of being mocked or singled out for their accent in a social setting (46%), with a similar proportion of university applicants reporting the same (40%) and just under half of all university students (47%).
• In earlier life stages, region of origin (particularly the North of England and the Midlands) plays an important part in accent anxiety. In the mid-life stage of professional employment, social class differences are more prominent. At all life stages, respondents from lower social grades report significantly more mocking or singling out of accent in workplace and social settings.
• For both university applicants and university students, those originally from the North of England were the most likely to be concerned their accent could affect their ability to succeed in the future (29% of university applicants and 41% at university from the North, versus 10% and 19% respectively for those in the South, excluding London).
• For those in senior managerial roles from lower socio-economic backgrounds, 21% were worried their accent could affect their ability to succeed in the future, compared to 12% from better-off families. Similarly, 29% of senior managers from working class families said they had been mocked in the workplace for their accent, versus 22% from a better off background.
• Your Northern-accented author has experienced all of these and as a result has tried to lose his accent (and an important part of his identity) to try to succeed in his career.

Training trends of the year

City and Guilds' new report on training, Training Trends 2022 came out last week:

• Tailored training is on the rise - 65% of organisations opt for tailor-made in-house training over off-the-shelf programmes, to support bespoke skills needs for their business.
• Employers are investing heavily in L&D - 96% of organisations expect their training budgets to remain the same or increase in the next financial year.
• Training failure is very high - 99% of large employers have experienced the failure of in-house training programmes in the last five years.
• A real opportunity to recognise skills and achievements - 71% of employers are not providing their employees with externally recognised certification on their in-house training.

Indeed's latest stats on UK vacancies show that hiring intentions remain resilient and labour supply is, if anything, worsening:

• UK job postings were 42% above the 1 February 2020, pre-pandemic baseline, seasonally adjusted, as of 21 October 2022 - it's been hovering around the 30 to 40% mark for most of the last year.
• Most of the sectors falling back are either non-graduate or are healthcare roles that recruited heavily in the last couple of years.
• Leading into the next story, the education sector is particularly strong at the moment.

Teach First are reporting serious issues recruiting teachers this year - this is in the context of existing staffing, recruiting and retention issues in the teaching workforce. This is a story to keep an eye on.

And from the USA, the new annual report on graduate hiring from the great team at our sister organisation NACE. Decisions made in big corporate HQs at US multinationals have an effect on UK hiring so the NACE report is always worth a read:

• Employers plan to hire 14.7% more new college graduates from the Class of 2023 than they did from the Class of 2022.
• Overall, the report shows that half of responding employers plan to increase hiring, while less than 6% expect to cut back.
• In addition, nearly half of the employers who took part in the Job Outlook 2023 survey rated the job market for Class of 2023 college graduates as very good to excellent.
• There are a variety of factors fuelling this, including the low US unemployment rate, which was just 3.5% in September and has hovered around there most of the year.
• The survey also found that while 20% of responding organisations are planning for a recession, only 6% expect to cut back on hiring new college graduates. Those that are cutting back cited three factors behind their decision: inflation, over-hiring last year, and uncertainty about attrition. The same thinking will influence decisions in the UK, which are likely to follow the same lines.

Written by

Charlie Ball

Senior consultant: labour market intelligence

Jisc