UK graduate labour market update: 5 May

Charlie Ball's weekly labour market update, brought to you by Prospects Luminate and Jisc Data and Analytics, includes two CIPD reports - one on health and wellbeing at work, the other looking at multicultural teams

The latest round of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) fast response experimental statistics on the impact of COVID were released on 22 April.

• 27% of the workforce worked solely from home last week, no change on the previous week.
• 13% of the workforce were on partial or full furlough leave.
• Total online job adverts on 29 April 2021 were at 103% of their average level in February 2020, the first time they were above February 2020 levels since the first lockdown last March.
• In the week to 24 April 2021, overall retail footfall in the UK was at 80% of its level in the equivalent week of 2019. Footfall at retail parks continues to outperform that at shopping centres and high streets relative to its level in the same period of 2019.

The Institute of Student Employers (ISE) published their annual Student Development Survey report. This surveyed 135 student employers:

• 48% are recruiting the same number of graduates as last year.
• 36% are hiring more.
• 18% increasing their intake by at least 10%, rising to 38% of employers in retail and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods).
• 31% are increasing recruitment of school leavers from last year and 57% are hiring the same number. 11% have cut recruitment.
• 56% of employers are recruiting the same number of interns as last year and 24% are hiring more.

I didn't cover this last week - it's a comparative analysis of the effect of the pandemic on living standards in the UK, France and Germany from the reliably-excellent team at the Resolution Foundation.

• Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, labour markets in France and the UK have been harder hit than in Germany.
• In Germany, 27% of respondents who were in work during February 2020 experienced a negative employment change - moving out of work, being furloughed or receiving lower-than-usual pay - by January 2021. In the UK, 38% of those in work in February 2020 experienced at least one of these negative changes, as did 39% in France.
• In France, respondents were more likely to have moved out of work over this period - in the UK, respondents were more likely to have been furloughed.
• Industry of work is the dominant factor in explaining whether individuals were furloughed. This accounts for 84% of the difference in whether or not a survey respondent was furloughed in the UK, 79% in France and 83% in Germany.
• In the UK, contract type is the dominant factor in determining whether an employed individual has subsequently left work, with respondents who had worked on insecure contracts in February 2020 being substantially more likely to have moved out of work by January 2021. In Germany, contract type was also significant (accounting for 25% of the difference), but age dominates (47%), with sector and whether or not a person was born abroad coming equal second. In France, personal characteristics related to age, gender and whether or not a person was born abroad are dominant.
• Among respondents who had at least one person in their household in work during February 2020, 33% in France and 32% in the UK experienced at least one person moving out of work or having had a period of lower-than-usual pay by December 2020. In Germany, 23 per cent experienced this.
• Germany has high employment but also high household worklessness rates among low-income households.
• France has lower employment rates, and low proportion of two-earner households among couples without children but their welfare system means higher replacement rates for income lost.
• The UK has high employment but relatively low hourly pay for lower earners, and low hours worked for self-employed in particular

British Chambers of Commerce have released the results of their Quarterly Recruitment Outlook:

• 40% of surveyed firms sought to recruit in Q1, however the picture varied significantly by sector. 20% of hotels and catering firms tried to recruit while retail and wholesaling also lagged at 34%. When it came to manufacturers and construction firms though, 50% and 54% respectively had attempted to recruit in Q1.
• The percentage of firms expecting their workforce to grow in the next three months rose from 19% in Q4 2020 to 27% in Q1.
• The percentage of firms facing recruitment difficulties rose sharply from 53% in Q4 to 63% in Q1. Those reporting issues in finding staff were highest in the construction sector at 71%, up from 58% in Q4.

Deloitte have published findings from their quarterly Consumer Tracker.

• UK consumer confidence jumped six percentage points in Q1 2021, to -11%, the fastest rate of quarterly growth in the Deloitte Consumer Tracker's ten-year history.
• State of the economy sentiment surged 12 percentage points from Q4 2020 as lockdown measures eased.
• Confidence in job security grew but remains in negative territory at -9%

Two reports from the CIPD this week, the first the CIPD/Simplyhealth Health and Wellbeing at Work survey report.

• 77% of employers have observed 'presenteeism' - people working when unwell - in employees who are working from home in the last year. This is slightly higher than levels of presenteeism in employees attending the workplace (75%).
• 'Leaveism' - such as using annual leave to work or when ill - is an issue, with 70% of employers observing it.
• 43% of employers experiencing presenteeism and 47 % experiencing leaveism aren't taking any action.

The second report is on multicultural teams, using online focus groups with managers across the UK, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

• Multicultural teams are more creative than homogenous teams, as colleagues are able to share unique perspectives and experiences to facilitate innovation and problem solving, and personally to become more well-rounded individuals.
• Multicultural teams require patience and openness to be effective. Cultural diversity presents challenges to effective teamwork, as different perspectives have to be recognised to ensure all members remain involved and engaged. This requires leaders who show cultural intelligence.
• Communication was cited as the main consideration for multicultural teams in both the research literature and the focus groups. A more implicit, personal approach to training may be more beneficial –highlighting the need for patient, emotionally intelligent and flexible leaders.
• Remote working resolves some issues, but exacerbates others. Global virtual teams face similar challenges to more fixed teams as a result of these changes, with the added challenge of maintaining a healthy work-life balance over different time zones. However, many are positive about the benefits of remote working - notably increased productivity and focus. Successful long-term remote working will rely heavily on managers maintaining regular communication and being flexible to individual needs and styles of working to get the most out of multicultural teams in the future.

Indeed have released more analysis of their data to April 23rd from the UK and Ireland.

• On 23 April UK vacancies stood at 90% of their pre-pandemic level, and Irish vacancies at 88%.
• In the UK, the biggest gains this week have been in food preparation & service occupations (+18 percentage points), followed by driving (+14 percentage points), retail (+13 percentage points) and cleaning & sanitation (+12 percentage points).
• Construction (+12 percentage points), loading & stocking (+10 percentage points) and production & manufacturing (+10 percentage points) have also seen gains in the total volume of job postings.
• All UK regions have seen improvements in job postings over the last two weeks. Postings in the North East and in Wales have exceeded their pre-pandemic level for the first time, by four and one percentage points, respectively.
• In the UK jobs in construction, production/manufacturing and medical are all above pre-pandemic levels.
• In Ireland, while job postings in sectors that rely on face-to-face contact - such as hospitality and tourism - remain depressed, recent growth is likely the result of a slight easing of restrictions.
• Construction activity is resuming gradually and a phased return of non-essential retail is expected to start in May.
• Many high-paid occupations continue to see job posting volumes below their pre-pandemic levels, including accounting (-27%), banking & finance (-19%), human resources (-17%) and marketing (-12%), without much improvement over the past month.
• Software development is one positive exception: postings in this category have already cleared the pre-pandemic baseline by 5%. This metric has improved by five percentage points in the past month.
• Postings in Dublin are currently 23% below their pre-pandemic level. This is below the national average of -12%. Counties Cork and Limerick are close to the average (both -13%), while Galway and Kildare have recovered more (both -5%). This is in line with other European countries (including the UK), where capital have also seen significant declines due to the sectoral composition of local workforce.

Written by

Charlie Ball

Head of higher education intelligence

Prospects