UK graduate labour market update: 12 December

Key reports covered in Charlie Ball's regular labour market update this week include the CIPD on inclusion at work, Jisc's Digital Experience Insights survey, and a look at university/business collaboration

We have released this year's version of What do graduates do?, the long-running careers publication from Jisc and AGCAS and designed for use by advisers in schools, colleges and universities to help students understand their future options. It features data on 33 different subject groups and looks at the outcomes for graduates from those subjects and the jobs that they did.

This year's publication covers graduates from 2019/20, who graduated during COVID, but were surveyed after most restrictions were lifted, and features commentary from careers specialists (including me) on topics including graduate views, inequality, migration and the effects of the pandemic on recruitment.

• The majority of graduates (57.3%) were in full-time work 15 months after graduating, while 11.4% were in part-time employment.
• Of those graduates in work, 74% were in professional-level employment - a higher proportion than those who left university the year before.
• 8% of graduates in work were self-employed or actively working towards this goal.
• 9.2% of graduates were engaged in further study, while 10.6% were both working and studying.
• Despite the difficult environment into which they graduated, just 5.9% were unemployed, but a substantial minority of these had something lined up and so only 4.2% were both out of work and had no work or study to go to within a month.

The publication is free, as always, so download, and have a read.

Jisc's Digital Experience Insights survey of 3,533 staff from 30 institutions found that higher education teaching staff satisfaction dropped by six percentage points this year.

The digital experience insights survey of higher education (HE) teaching staff found less than half (48%) of survey respondents rated the support they received to teach effectively online as ‘above average', down from 54% last year and a fall of 6%. The drop comes as more than half of respondents said they preferred a blended mode of teaching:

• 53% of respondents said they wanted a mix of on-site and online
• 39% said they wanted mainly on-site teaching
• 8% said they wanted mainly online teaching.

Only 14% of teaching staff said they had received an assessment of their digital skills and training needs, and 73% of teaching staff reported going to colleagues for help with digital problems, compared to 48% contacting IT staff. Just 6% of teaching staff agreed that they are rewarded or recognised for their digital skills.

The survey also revealed that staff are facing challenges caused by digital inequality: 42% reported difficulty with wifi connections, 16% reported no suitable computer or device to deliver the digital elements of their courses and 14% reported having no safe, private place to work.

Generally, staff were positive about the teaching platforms their organisations used. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of respondents rated the online teaching environment they used as ‘above average', and just 11% rated it as below average. 

Asked where they wanted universities to invest for the future, 37% wanted to upgrade platforms and systems, 32% wanted better IT support, 16% wanted more computers or devices, and 14% wanted specialist software. 

Meanwhile 2021 Census data on the labour market in England and Wales has been released. At Census Day, 21 March 2021, 29.4 million usual residents aged 16 years and over in England and Wales were economically active (60.6%), while 19.1 million (39.4%) were economically inactive.

Among usual residents aged 16 years and over, almost half were employees (47.6%, 23.1 million), almost 1 in 10 were self-employed (9.6%, 4.7 million) and a further 3.4% (1.7 million) were unemployed but looking for work.

There were 4.7 million self-employed people in England and Wales (9.6% of all usual residents aged 16 years and over). A total of 748,000 (1.5%) were self-employed with employees and 3.9 million (8.1%) were self-employed without employees. The proportion of usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment who were self-employed (either with or without employees) was greater in England (9.7%) than in Wales (8.3%).

Across English regions, the percentage of usual residents aged 16 years and over who were employees ranged from 45.6% in the North East to 48.9% in London. Correspondingly, the percentage who were self-employed ranged from 6.6% in the North East to 12.5% in London.

Some 8.7 million (31.2%) usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment in England and Wales worked mainly at or from home in the week before Census Day, 21 March 2021. In England, the regional percentages of people who worked mainly at or from home ranged from 24.8% in the North East to 42.1% in London.

Across England, the largest percentages of usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment who worked mainly at or from home lived in the City of London (67.3%) and Richmond upon Thames (58.8%) local authorities, whereas the lowest proportion lived in Boston (10.6%). In Wales, the percentage working mainly at or from home ranged from 14.0% in Blaenau Gwent to 36.1% in Cardiff.

12.5 million people travelled to work by driving a car or van (45.1% of all usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment). Meanwhile 1.1 million travelled as passengers in a car or van (3.9%).

In England and Wales, 5.5 million usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment travelled to work by a main method other than as a driver or a passenger of a car or van (19.8%). After driving a car or van, the next selected mode of travel to work was on foot (2.1 million, 7.6%). The remaining responses for method of travel to work were:

• almost 1.2 million people (4.2%) travelled by bus, minibus or coach
• 569,000 (2.0%) travelled by bicycle
• 529,000 (1.9%) travelled by train
• 505,000 (1.8%) travelled by underground, metro, light rail, or tram
• 200,000 (0.7%) travelled by taxi
• 129,000 (0.5%) travelled by motorcycle, scooter or moped
• 286,000 (1.0%) travelled by another method of travel to work.

A similar percentage of people travelled to work on foot in England (7.6%) and in Wales (7.1%). Within England, a larger percentage of people in the South West travelled to work on foot (9.2%) compared with other regions.

Compared with other English regions, a larger percentage of usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment living in London:

• travelled by underground, metro, light rail or tram (9.9%, compared with less than 1% in other English regions)
• travelled by bus, minibus or coach (8.9%, compared with less than 5% in other English regions)
• travelled by train (5.3%, compared with less than 3% in other English regions).

The broad industries that employed the largest numbers of people in England and Wales at the time of Census 2021 were:

• wholesale, retail and motor trade (15.0% of usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment, 4.2 million)
• human health and social work activities (14.7%, 4.1 million)
• education (9.8%, 2.7 million)
• construction (8.7%, 2.4 million)
• manufacturing (7.3%, 2.0 million).

Only one industry has entered the top ten by employment numbers since 2011 - the IT industry, which has risen from the 14th to the 8th largest employer in the UK.

Employment in the manufacturing industry decreased by 1.6 percentage points (7.3%, 2.0 million in 2021, compared with 8.9%, 2.4 million in 2011), whereas employment in human health and social work activities increased by 2.2 percentage points (14.7%, 4.1 million in 2021, compared with 12.5%, 3.3 million in 2011).

More people were employed in professional occupations compared with any other broad occupation categories (20.2%, 5.6 million people - these are considered graduate level occupations). Although data at a more detailed occupational level exists it is not yet published.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the total number of online job adverts was unchanged on 2 December 2022 compared with the previous week

• Of the 28 job categories, 16 showed a decrease in the number of adverts, while ten increased and two remained unchanged. The largest decrease was in the 'Charity and voluntary' category, which fell by 5% and was 21% below its level in the equivalent week of 2021. Elsewhere, the largest increase was 8% in 'HR & recruitment', though this category remained 29% lower than its level in the equivalent week of 2021.
• In the 12 UK countries and English regions, the number of adverts was unchanged in six, decreased in four and increased in two. Adverts were below the level in the equivalent week of 2021 in all 12 UK countries and English regions, except Scotland where they were 10% above this level. The lowest performer compared with the equivalent week of 2021 was the East Midlands, which reported 30% fewer adverts.
• The number of potential redundancies reported in the week to 27 November 2022 was 73% above the level in the equivalent week of 2021, while the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 104% compared with the level in the equivalent week of 2021 - but do bear in mind that this comparison is with some historically low levels and that current figures remain below long-term trends.
• 52% of businesses currently trading experienced no change in turnover in November 2022 compared with the previous month, after accounting for usual seasonal fluctuations. 29% expected turnover to decrease in January 2023 beyond usual seasonal fluctuations, up from 24% expecting December 2022 turnover to decrease in the previous month.
• 13% of businesses not permanently stopped trading were experiencing a shortage of workers. This percentage was higher for businesses with 10 or more employees, at 32%, and reached 54% for employers in health and social care.
• Of businesses with ten employees or more that were experiencing worker shortages, 54% reported employees were working increased hours, while 37% of businesses were unable to meet demands. Only 5% said worker shortage had no impact on them.
• Interestingly, given the fall in vacancies in the East Midlands, it is businesses in the region who are most likely to report a shortage of workers, with London the least likely.

Migration and regional data also feature in another Jisc release, this time from HESA. This looks at movement between local authorities and links it to measures to examine meaningful work. 

• 46.5% of the 279,700 graduates included in the study stayed in the same region where they lived for both study and later work. Of these graduates, three out of five worked in a different local authority from where they lived before entering higher education.
• A further 22.4% of graduates studied in a different region from their home but returned to their home region to work. Nearly two thirds of these graduates worked in a different local authority from where they had started.
• 31.1% of graduates ended up working in a different region from where they started.

Business and university collaboration

The National Council for Universities and Business (NCUB) have released their annual State of the Relationship report on business/university collaboration. I wrote a section for this on the impact of COVID on the R&D workforce.

• Between 2019/20 and 2020/21, the number of interactions between universities and businesses decreased by just 2%.  
• Further analysis of the interaction data uncovered that specific commercialisation activities, such as patent registrations increased by 11% annually, with a 4.5% increase in university spinouts surviving at least three years. 
• University income from industry through knowledge exchange fell 10.1%. This was mainly driven by a decline in CPD, facilities and equipment, and contract research, largely driven by pandemic-related disruption. 

As always with the NCUB, this is a meticulously-researched and detailed publication full of useful insight that is well worth your time.

British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) have issued their 2023 economic forecast:

• In the immediate term, the BCC is now forecasting a five-quarter recession for the UK economy which began in Q3 of 2022. The annual expectation for GDP growth in 2023 is now -1.3%, broadly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Bank of England's predictions. However, unlike the Bank of England, the BCC expects the economy to grow in 2024, albeit at 0.7%, which is around half of the OBR's forecast.
• Businesses and consumers will continue to face high costs due to inflation, but the upward spiral is now thought to have peaked for Q4 2022.
• Overall investment is expected to fall by 1.8% in 2023, with business investment expected to fall even further by 3.0% in 2023, down significantly from a previous prediction of a 0.6% increase. This is likely to affect hiring intentions.

The CIPD's new Inclusion at Work report finds that 47% of leaders do not have a ready equality, diversity and inclusion (EDI) strategy or action plan in place.

• 76% of employers who have an I&D strategy or action plan evaluate its effectiveness in some way; however, 18% do not.
• The most common methods of evaluation are with internal stakeholders (through staff surveys and gathering qualitative feedback from staff networks).
• The public and third/voluntary sectors are most likely to say their approach to inclusion and diversity is proactive.
• The most common areas of I&D that employers focus on are mental health (29%), race/ethnicity (23%) and gender (21%).
• Two key motivations for organisations' choice of focus are to do with improving people's working lives and the benefits that focus will bring to the organisation.
• 'Data showing there are inequalities in this area within the organisation' did not appear on employers' top five list of reasons for focusing on the inclusion and diversity of any of the personal characteristics.
• Around half of employers say they have flexible working policies (52%) and a similar number have anti-discrimination, bullying and harassment policies (49%) and hybrid working policies (for example, ability to work from home/remotely and in physical workspace) (48%).
• 21% of employees said leaders are not very committed, or not at all committed, to having a diverse workforce, and 17% are not committed to having an inclusive workplace.
• Twenty-one per cent of employers agreed that senior leaders just pay lip service to inclusion and diversity in their organisation, with 46% saying they don't.
• Around a quarter (23%) of the senior decision-makers CIPD surveyed agreed with the statement that senior leaders wrongly believe they already have an inclusive and diverse organisation.
• 23% agreed that senior leaders feel uncomfortable talking about inclusion and diversity.
• Tangible action on inclusion and diversity is part of how senior leaders' performance is judged in 29% of organisations.

Data points to ongoing worker shortage

Two new reports from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC): the first is the monthly Labour Market Tracker:

• There were 216,257 new job postings in the week of 14-20 November - 40.6% higher comparing to a month earlier (17 to 23 October, which may have been affected by school half-terms) and only 0.4% lower than the week of 10 to 16 October. There is little sign of slowing labour demand.
• The number of active postings has remained stable, with between 1.39 to 1.5 million active job adverts since mid-August.
• Notable increases in adverts for jobs in domestic services, and the energy and retail sectors, including cleaners, energy plant operatives, and shopkeepers.

Then we have December's Report On Jobs:

• Candidate shortages and uncertainty around the economic outlook dampened recruitment during November. Permanent placements fell for the second successive month, albeit at a softer rate than that seen in October. Meanwhile, temp billings rose modestly after broadly stagnating in the previous month.
• Overall demand for workers expanded at the softest rate since February 2021 during November. Temporary vacancies continued to expand more sharply than that seen for permanent roles. Note that demand continues to rise, it is just rising less steeply than before.
• The overall availability of workers continued to deteriorate during November, and at a steeper pace than seen on average since the survey began 25 years ago. Tight labour market conditions, fewer foreign workers and a greater hesitancy among people to take up new roles due to increased economic uncertainty all dampened candidate numbers, according to recruiters.
• The steepest increase in demand for staff was signalled for temporary workers in the private sector. In contrast, temporary vacancies in the public sector fell for the first time since December 2020, albeit marginally. Growth of demand for permanent workers meanwhile moderated across both the private and public sectors, but remained strong overall.

All of this points to a continued shortage of workers even as the UK is in recession.

The Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) polled 1,105 students via the National Union of Students (NUS) for their views on careers services and employment:

• 34% regard it as the responsibility of their higher education institution to find them a job and 30% say it is not.
• Most students look to their careers service to offer help with finding an internship or placement (63%), writing their curriculum vitae (63%), interview preparation (61%), finding a career (60%) and hosting careers fairs (52%). Providing mentoring and life skills also has substantial support (49%) while far fewer students expect help with finding a holiday job (22%).
• 53% think 'all university courses should be designed mainly with future employment in mind' and a further 37% say 'some university courses should be'. Very few students say only ‘a small proportion' (4%) or no university course (4%) should have a focus on employment. 35% say 'every course should be co-designed with employers'.
• 53% of students ‘strongly disagree' with proposals in England of providing reduced access to student finance to those opting for courses with poor employment prospects; and an additional 16% 'disagree'.
• Nearly one-half of students are either 'very confident' (14%) or ‘quite confident' (32%) that they are likely to find their desired job on graduation but a substantial minority are 'quite unconfident' (21%) or 'very unconfident' (9%). Men tended to express more confidence, while  postgraduates and Design, Creative and Performing Arts students are among the least confident.
• When it comes to the type of employer, many students say they do not mind (34%) what size their future employer is. 31% would prefer a small-to-medium sized enterprises with 249 staff or fewer and 28% one with 250 or more staff.
• More students prefer employers who consider characteristics such as work experience and extra-curricular activities (41%) than prefer employers who mostly care about degree results (30%).
• When asked what they regard as 'the best definition of a 'graduate-level job', students split three ways: 30% say a graduate-level job is one where an employer requires applicants to have a degree; 29% say it is one that is officially classified as 'graduate-level'; and 26% say it is a position that pays above the student loan repayment threshold.
• Nearly half of students are either 'very confident' (16%) or 'quite confident' (31%) that they will secure a graduate-level role, while 17% are 'quite unconfident' and 8% are 'very unconfident'.
• 49% of students have not used their careers service to date, which is slightly higher than the proportion who have (43%), but is in line with previous examinations of the topic.
• Those who have used a careers service are more satisfied than unsatisfied, with 59% saying they were 'very happy' or 'quite happy' with the service they received. However, 13% were 'quite unhappy' and 7% were 'very unhappy'.
• When asked why they had not used their careers service, responses were mixed. Many indicated they knew nothing about their careers office, the services it provided or, in some cases, whether there even was one at their institution. Of those who knew more, some believed their careers service would be unable to support their career needs, others felt it was the wrong time to use their service but intended to do so later in their course and some felt they were too busy. A final group already had a career lined up, so thought they had no need for the service.

The Irish HEA have released their new quarterly statistical newsletter. Some is devoted to the Graduate Outcomes data we covered last update, but there is also interesting socio-economic data on Irish students:

• One in ten higher education students in Ireland are disadvantaged, while one in five are affluent (29% are Marginally Below Average, and 42% are Marginally Above Average). Compared to 2019/20, this is largely the same.
• Postgraduate students tend to be more affluent (DIS = 3.8) than Undergraduate students (DIS = 1.7). One in four postgraduate students are affluent.
• While 24% of affluent students are engaged in postgraduate studies, only 13% of disadvantaged students are engaged in postgraduate studies.
• Three in four affluent students enter higher education through second level school leaving exams, compared to 59% of disadvantaged students. For disadvantaged students, 13% are entering through Mature Years, and 10% are entering through a further education award or equivalent.
• By detailed field of study, Child Care and Youth Services are most disadvantaged (DIS = -2.2), while Economics students are, on average, most affluent (DIS = 6.8).
• Students from Dublin are most affluent (DIS = 6.3), while students from Donegal are most disadvantaged (DIS = -5.5).
• The median travel time for students from their home address to their institute is 43 minutes.

Written by

Charlie Ball

Head of labour market intelligence

Jisc